Election Report 2016
Follow the 2016 election with weekly updates by Ryan Richardson.
Election Report: Final Edition
On Tuesday, people from all over the country went to their local polling stations to cast their vote for the next President of the United States of America. Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton came into the election with a 4-point lead in the polling average, and a slight lead on the Electoral College map. Most people expected an easy win for Secretary Clinton. However, the results would leave America and the rest of the world shocked beyond belief.
Republican nominee Donald Trump had an apparent but difficult path to victory; the Trump camp needed to secure all the states 2012 nominee Mitt Romney won, and then pick off Florida, Ohio, and one of the three states that made up the “Blue Wall” (Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania). The first sign that the Clinton campaign was in danger was when Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina were all called for Donald Trump within thirty minutes of each other. Trump’s success in these three states would ultimately pave the way for a hugely successful night. Trump continued to pick up the states that Mitt Romney won. He secured the small electoral prize of Iowa by 10 points, which Mitt Romney failed to win in 2012. The Clinton camp breathed a sigh of relief when she took the swing states of Colorado and Virginia. But, out of nowhere, the Blue Wall began to crumble. Trump won the state of Wisconsin by a slim margin of 1 percent. Before anyone knew it, Trump was only 16 electoral votes away from winning the presidency. Clinton’s path to the White House was disintegrating right in front of her eyes. Then, at 2 o’ clock on Wednesday morning, the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania was called for Donald Trump, putting him above the magic number of 270 electoral votes.
Along with winning the White House, the GOP maintained control of both houses of Congress. This means that the GOP has an opportunity to nominate conservative justices to the Supreme Court once Trump assumes office. In short, the election of Donald Trump is so significant that it could erase the legacy of Barack Obama and hugely affect our country for the next half century.
The day after the election, multiple protests broke out across the nation. Distraught Clinton supporters lashed out against the Electoral College, Trump’s policy positions, and white people. Pardon me for being subjective, but no matter how loud the protesters scream, how nasty it will get, and how much people won’t like it, Donald Trump will still be our president. We need to come together as one America and accept the future of our country, and work together to ensure longevity and prosperity. If you have a problem with the way our country is governed, you can do something about it. The Founding Fathers established our republic on the principle that the government worked for the people, with the consent of the people. Condemning half of American voters will get us nowhere, and the best thing to do is to swallow the loss and move forward.
The new Trump administration will move into Washington on January 20th, 2017. Donald Trump will take the oath of office and assume his role as President of the United States. The broken Democratic Party must find a way to pick up the pieces to prepare for the midterm elections of 2018 and the presidential election of 2020. If they don’t do what’s necessary in this short amount of time, we may be looking at reelecting the current president-elect, Donald J. Trump.
Election Report: Week of 10/30
Last weekend, FBI director James Comey reopened the investigation into Hillary Clinton’s private email server after thousands of new emails were discovered on Anthony Weiner’s laptop. In the days following, Clinton’s poll numbers have sharply plummeted. Her electoral lead diminished from 340 to 275 in just two days. Essentially, this means that Donald Trump must pick up one more state to win the election. He is within 3 points in the states of Pennsylvania and Colorado, 5 points in Virginia and Michigan (likely to stay with Clinton) and took a lead in New Hampshire, Nevada, Arizona, and North Carolina. It appears the election will be decided by the state of Florida. Those who remember the 2000 Presidential election know how valuable Florida is to the candidates. Republican George W. Bush won the state by a mere 500 votes after weeks of recounting, therefore putting him in the White House. Given the current circumstances, whoever wins Florida on Tuesday can be assured that the Presidency is theirs.
Election Report: Weeks of 10/16 and 10/23
If you’ve been following along with this election coverage, you probably remember my prediction that Hillary Clinton would most likely be the clear winner of this election. It appeared as though Clinton would win the election with a landslide majority in the popular vote and the electoral college. However, a stunning new development has occurred that may flip this campaign season downside up.
Earlier this year, the Federal Bureau of Investigation conducted a lengthy investigation into Hillary Clinton’s private email server that she used during her term as Secretary of State. FBI director James Comey testified to the fact that Secretary had sent government classified material on this email server, which puts our nation’s secret operations in danger of being discovered by hackers and spies. For some odd reason, the FBI and the Department of Justice decided to let Clinton off the hook. Earlier this week, a new sexting scandal involving Anthony Weiner (go ahead, laugh), former New York Congressman and husband of Clinton’s top aide Huma Abedin, led to the discovery of thousands of new emails that prompted the reopening of Clinton’s email case by the FBI. Just a day after the news came out, Clinton’s poll numbers plunged. It will take a few more days to know for sure, but the Trump campaign may see a last-minute surge that can very well put Donald Trump in the White House.
Election Report: Weeks of 10/2 and 10/9
Two weeks ago, the Vice Presidential candidates from both major parties faced off in their only live televised debate. Democratic nominee Tim Kaine of Virginia came into the debate riding a fresh bump in the polls following Hillary Clinton’s first debate performance. Republican Mike Pence’s main focus coming into the debate was to lay out the GOP platform, while at the same time defend his running mate as best as possible. During the debate, Senator Kaine took a very aggressive approach, and even came across as disruptive and annoying to most viewers. Mike Pence, on the other hand, remained calm and composed throughout the debate. He managed to accomplish the main goal of his performance, while also making Tim Kaine look like an annoying and irritating alternative. Although it is clear that Mike Pence won the debate in a landslide, Donald Trump’s poll numbers remained unchanged in the days following the debate.
A week following the Vice Presidential debate, the second televised Presidential debate took place. Just two days prior to the debate, an audio tape from 2005 appeared to record Donald Trump having a lewd sexual conversation with Billy Bush in a country club locker room. Some of his comments went so far as to suggest that Trump would willingly engage in the sexual assault of a woman. Immediately after the tapes were released, Trump’s poll numbers plunged. Secretary Clinton was able to easily walk into the debate and demolish the Trump campaign on the issue of the tapes. Although recent batches of emails released by WikiLeaks further showcase the corruption and dirty money that circulates under Hillary Clinton and her Clinton Foundation, the emails have gone relatively unnoticed compared to Trump’s tapes. Currently, Hillary Clinton holds a 6-point lead in national polling averages and a landslide lead in the electoral college prediction. With less than 20 days left in the election, it is becoming clear that the next President of the United States will most likely be Hillary Rodham Clinton.
Election Report: Week of 9/25/2016
Donald Trump came into the first live presidential debate riding on a magnificent surge in the polls. He was gaining on Hillary Clinton in the battleground states of Florida, Colorado, Pennsylvania, and Florida. However, Clinton managed to pull off a stellar debate performance while Donald Trump essentially shot himself in the foot. The most recent polls show a boost in Hillary Clinton’s numbers as a result of the debate.
Donald Trump came out firing in the first five minutes of the debate. He launched a full on series of attacks on Hillary Clinton, and it seemed as though the debate would be an easy victory for Trump. His delivery was confident, determined, and humorous at some times. However, this would soon change. Trump’s constant interruption of Secretary Clinton and moderator Lester Holt quickly became aggravating to those watching the debate. Trump’s arguments had no factual support, and he consistently avoided the main points of a question. Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton remained calm, intellectual, and formal. While Clinton did issue some attacks against Donald Trump, she managed to inform the audience of the key components of her platform, something that Trump failed to accomplish. Most polls show a clear victory for Secretary Clinton.
The first and only vice presidential debate is set to take place on Tuesday, October 4th at 9 pm. The debate will be held at Virginia’s own Longwood University. The next presidential debate is October 9th at 9 pm. Be sure to tune into the debates, as this is the best opportunity to get informed of each candidate’s platform.
Election Report: Week of 9/18/2016
It’s been a busy week on the campaign trail. Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are gearing up for the final stretch, with November 8th inching closer and closer. Last week, Donald Trump was rapidly ascending in the polls, coming within striking distance in Ohio, North Carolina, Colorado, and Florida. The most recent polling averages from RealClearPolitics.com now show Trump taking the lead in the battleground states of Ohio, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina, and Arizona. Hillary Clinton’s leads in the states of Virginia and Colorado have fallen within the margin of error. Clinton’s predicted electoral stronghold has decreased from 362 votes to 272 in the span of less than two weeks. The Clinton campaign has gone into full panic mode, as a seemingly certain victory is slipping away.
Hillary Clinton’s Twitter account (@HillaryClinton) started a thread of tweets last Friday that attempted to plaster Donald Trump as a supporter of the Barack Obama “birther” conspiracy, the theory that President Obama was born in Kenya. While Donald Trump was indeed a major proponent of this conspiracy, speculation of Barack Obama’s background was prevalent in the base of Hillary Clinton’s 2008 bid for the Democratic nomination, as well. Birther rumors were first brought to national attention in the summer of 2008, when it was apparent that Hillary Clinton was going to lose the Democratic nomination to then Illinois Senator Barack Obama. Eight years later, the Clinton campaign finds itself in a similar situation. Donald Trump is surging in the polls, and the Democrats are pulling out anything they can in an attempt to reclaim their lost ground. The GOP nominee has remained collective throughout this series of attacks, however. Donald Trump came out to the media by stating his belief that Barack Obama was born in the United States.
Columnist and talk show host Ben Shapiro (@benshapiro) has noted the flipping of campaign strategies amongst the Trump and Clinton campaigns. A month ago, Hillary Clinton remained in the shadows and watched as Donald Trump’s campaign virtually self-imploded. Since then, the roles have flipped. Donald Trump has managed to remain calm and stay out of the media’s attention as the Clinton campaign enters a full-on tailspin.
The first nationally televised debate is scheduled on Monday, September 26th at Hofstra University. The debate will only feature the two major party candidates, as Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein failed to reach the 15% polling requirement to earn a spot in the debate. The debates give the candidates an opportunity to truly compare themselves and answer the questions that Americans are asking.
Week of 9/11/2016
This past Sunday marked the 15th anniversary of the September 11th attacks. It was a day full of remembrance, mourning, and rejoicing. As per usual during election years, the candidates took to the skies to show their patriotism and ability to heal the wounds of an ever damaged nation. Both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton went to New York City, the site of the attacks on the World Trade Center, to commemorate this fateful day. Trump and Clinton both have strong ties to the state, as Clinton represented New York in the Senate throughout the 2000’s, and Donald Trump established his real estate empire in New York City.
Hillary Clinton’s visit to New York was quite eventful. After speaking at a ceremony near Ground Zero, Secretary Clinton was evacuated from the area due to a bout with heat exhaustion. In a video posted by Zdenek Gazda (@zgazda66) on Twitter, the Democratic nominee can be seen collapsing and being forced into a black van by several Secret Service agents. Later that day, Clinton’s doctor revealed to the press that she had been diagnosed with pneumonia. These instances are a shot in the heart to the Clinton campaign, as they have been struggling to deny conservative speculations regarding the Secretary’s health condition. Both the collapse and the diagnosis further justify and legitimize these allegations. Despite the episode, CNN video shows Clinton leaving her daughter’s Manhattan apartment a few hours after her collapse, waving to the crowd and exclaiming, “I’m feeling great.”
On the other hand, Donald Trump’s visit to New York was met with little fanfare. The GOP nominee visited Ground Zero and gave a speech, but his actions seemed to be overshadowed by Clinton’s dramatic appearance. Nevertheless, Donald Trump has managed to keep his inappropriate comments and gaffes to a minimum over the past few weeks. Trump’s controversial immigration speech from last week generated lots of confusion from voters, but his numbers are drastically rising. The most recent Real Clear Politics polling average has Hillary Clinton leading by a mere 2.1%. This is a significant decrease in her lead from a month ago, which reached as high as 10 percentage points. Trump is knocking on the door in many of the crucial battleground states, as well. Polls in Ohio, Iowa, Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina show a constantly shrinking gap between Clinton and Trump. Trump’s increasing poll numbers in these states give him a legitimate chance to win the 270 electoral votes needed to seize the White House. If Donald Trump were to be victorious on November 8th, he would become the first president to win an election after being down in the polls on Labor Day. It’s set to be a photo finish for the White House, and it’s still anyone’s game. With the televised debates on the horizon, we should all expect a classic down-and-dirty fight for the Presidency.